Hyper-Local Dev Watch

Via Andrew Poncher on LinkedIn

Visual Capitalist just dropped a map showing 48.9 million overseas visitors to U.S. states in 2024. 

It's a clean visualization. But there's a massive blind spot.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗰𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸:

Over 50% of overseas visitors went to just four states:

→ New York: 9.8M

→ Florida: 8.9M

→ California: 6.7M

→ Nevada: 2.5M

If your tourism-dependent retail or hospitality portfolio is concentrated in these markets, you're exposed. One geopolitical shift, one currency swing, one policy change and your traffic assumptions need rewriting.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗚𝗮𝗽:

Here's what the map doesn't show: Canada and Mexico.

In 2024, Mexican land visitors alone totaled 13.4 million. Where did they go?

→ California: 6.2M

→ Texas: 4.9M

→ Arizona: 1.5M

Canadian air visitors added another 9.7 million:

→ Florida: 2.4M

→ California: 1.9M

→ Nevada: 1.4M

→ New York: 1.1M

That's 23+ million visitors from our two closest neighbors, not showing up in the "overseas" data.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆?

𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼 𝗱𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀. Tourism-heavy assets in the top four states carry concentration risk that most underwriting ignores.

𝗕𝗼𝗿𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝘂𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗱. Texas and Arizona look modest on the overseas map, but cross-border traffic tells a different story. You can't ignore Canada and Mexico in looking at the big picture.

Realm is a collective of about 100 family offices.

In six months they deployed $100M into Northern California real estate, including a San Francisco office building at 21% of its last trade.

This is the club deal model at scale.

100 families. Pooled capital. Shared diligence. Coordinated execution. One investment thesis.

Why collectives and networks are the future:

Individual family offices lack deal flow (UBS: sourcing quality opportunities is a major constraint).

Collectives aggregate more capital than any single family.

Shared diligence cuts costs per family.

Combined expertise (one family knows tech, another knows real estate).

Network effect: more families = more deal flow = better selection.

Other examples:

SFO Alliance connecting family offices globally.

Latam FO Summit facilitating cross-border family deals.

Club deals representing 69% of all family office investments (PwC).

Family-to-family fundraising (Pritzkers raised $3.4B from other families).

The lone wolf family office is dying.

The future belongs to networks, collectives, and syndicates where families invest alongside families they trust.

Is your family office part of a collective or network?

References:

CNBC - Family Offices Opportunistic Real Estate: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/26/family-offices-make-opportunistic-bets-on-real-estate.html

PwC Family Office Deals Study 2025: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/family-business/family-office/family-office-deals-study.html

Crain Currency - Real Estate 2026: https://www.craincurrency.com/peer-peer-insights/peer-peer-newsletter-jan-15-2026-what-family-offices-want-real-estate-2026